BRASÍLIA — Brazil’s highest court delivered a historic ruling on Thursday, convicting former president Jair Bolsonaro of orchestrating a criminal conspiracy to overturn the results of the 2022 election and cling to power through a military coup. The verdict leaves the far-right populist staring down the possibility of a decades-long prison sentence — and the nation grappling with both relief and uncertainty over what comes next.
A majority of the Supreme Federal Court’s five-judge panel sided against the former paratrooper. Justice Cármen Lúcia Antunes Rocha cast the decisive vote, declaring Bolsonaro guilty of attempting to “sow the malignant seed of anti-democracy” in Brazil. She praised the resilience of the country’s democratic institutions, insisting that “Brazilian democracy was not shaken,” even as she warned of “the virus of authoritarianism.”
Rocha’s ruling followed earlier declarations by Justices Alexandre de Moraes and Flávio Dino, who each accused Bolsonaro of leading what Moraes described as “a criminal organisation” intent on dragging the nation back into dictatorship. According to their accounts, the plot unfolded over 18 months between mid-2021 and January 2023, culminating in the infamous riots of January 8, 2023, when Bolsonaro supporters stormed the Supreme Court, presidential palace, and Congress.
Only one judge, Luiz Fux, voted to absolve Bolsonaro. He argued that there was “absolutely no proof” the former president directly ordered a coup or assassination attempts against President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Justice Moraes. Still, Fux condemned the riots as a “barbaric act” of destruction and voted to convict Bolsonaro’s close allies, including his former defense minister, Gen. Walter Braga Netto, and ex-aide-de-camp, Lt. Col. Mauro Cid, who were accused of plotting to assassinate Moraes as part of the conspiracy.
Eight of Bolsonaro’s allies were convicted alongside him, among them former ministers Augusto Heleno and Paulo Sérgio Nogueira de Oliveira, ex-spy chief Alexandre Ramagem, and former justice minister Anderson Torres.
Outside the courthouse in Brasília, the verdict triggered an explosion of celebration among Bolsonaro’s critics. Lindbergh Farias, leader of Lula’s Workers’ Party in the lower house, declared: “Today, Brazil is making history. Brazil is saying: ‘Coups are a crime!’”
The moment was marked by music as well as politics. Fabiano Leitão, a trumpeter known for years of satirizing Bolsonaro, played Chopin’s Funeral March before breaking into samba, symbolizing what many on the left saw as the downfall of a leader they blamed for democratic backsliding, environmental destruction, and a disastrous COVID-19 response.
Yet while progressive Brazilians cheered, political analysts warned that Bolsonaro’s movement remains far from dead. Camila Rocha, a political scientist at the Brazilian Centre for Analysis and Planning, said the former president’s supporters are likely to mobilize in his defense, pursuing strategies such as stacking the Senate with right-wing lawmakers who could move to impeach his judicial foes, or even appealing to allies abroad like Donald Trump to pressure Brazil diplomatically.
“Bolsonaro may be convicted, but he will remain a symbol for his base,” Rocha said. “They will fight to keep him visible and hope to secure his release or eventual pardon.”
His sentencing, expected Friday, could amount to as much as 43 years in prison for crimes including plotting a coup d’état and violently attempting to abolish Brazil’s democracy. Bolsonaro, 70, has remained under house arrest in his Brasília mansion during the proceedings, with police stationed outside to prevent flight.
Calls for amnesty from Bolsonaro-aligned lawmakers have already surfaced, billed as a path toward national reconciliation. But Fabio Victor, author of Camouflaged Power, warned such measures would be dangerous. “It would send an awful signal — it would undoubtedly represent a setback to democracy,” he said.
For now, the country is caught between jubilation and trepidation: relief at a landmark moment of accountability, but also an awareness that the forces Bolsonaro unleashed — populist anger, distrust in institutions, and authoritarian temptation — are still woven into Brazil’s political fabric.
As trumpets blared and samba beats filled the Brasília air, the message was unmistakable: one of the hemisphere’s largest democracies had not only survived an attempted coup but declared, in the words of Justice Moraes, that “the victim is the Brazilian state” — and justice, at least for now, had prevailed.
