As Congress prepares for its new session in January 2025, lingering divisions within the Republican Party threaten to complicate the certification of President-elect Donald Trump’s Electoral College victory. The struggle to elect a House speaker—scheduled to begin on January 3—could delay crucial procedures for finalizing the results of the 2024 presidential election.

The scenario has sparked concern among legal scholars and political experts, who warn that a prolonged leadership fight could throw the chamber into unprecedented disarray just as the nation’s constitutional process demands swift and precise action.

The Stakes on January 6

The Electoral College vote count, set for January 6, is a vital constitutional step in confirming the results of the presidential election. Traditionally, the House and Senate meet in a joint session, with the Vice President presiding, to certify the votes.

However, the House must first elect a speaker and swear in its members before it can participate. Speaker Mike Johnson, who narrowly holds the gavel, faces growing opposition within his party, raising the possibility of a protracted and contentious speaker election.

Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has already announced he will not support Johnson in the vote, citing dissatisfaction with recent party dynamics. With a razor-thin GOP majority in the incoming Congress, even a few dissenting votes could stall the process.

“Nothing else happens until the speaker is elected,” said Steve Smith, a political science professor at Arizona State University. “It’s been that way since 1789. But that tradition could prove problematic if Republicans fail to unite quickly.”

Procedural Options in Uncharted Waters

If the House cannot elect a speaker by January 6, constitutional scholars suggest there are options to ensure the Electoral College count proceeds. Justin Levitt, a law professor at Loyola Marymount University, noted that while the House cannot conduct normal business without a speaker, its role in the joint session could continue.

“The Constitution only requires the Senate, the House, and the Vice President to count the votes,” Levitt explained. “The House could participate in the joint session even without electing a speaker, relying on procedures laid out in the Electoral Count Reform Act of 2022.”

Another option could involve appointing a temporary speaker. Derek Muller, a professor at Notre Dame Law School, suggested the House could elect an acting leader to oversee the vote certification, delaying the permanent speakership decision until after January 6.

“The House has the authority to organize itself,” Muller said. “That gives them enough legal flexibility to navigate a temporary solution.”

Republican Infighting and Political Fallout

The potential delay comes amid renewed Republican infighting following a bruising year of debates over government spending and the debt ceiling. Speaker Johnson, who has struggled to manage a fractious GOP conference, faces mounting pressure from both moderates and hardliners within his party.

“Anyone who wants this job obviously isn’t in their right mind,” quipped Rep. Tom McClintock (R-CA) in a recent interview, reflecting the tensions over party leadership.

Former President Donald Trump, whose Electoral College win is at the center of the January 6 session, is likely to exert significant influence. Political experts suggest Trump could pressure House Republicans to resolve the speaker crisis swiftly, ensuring the process moves forward without complications.

Historical Precedent and Legal Risks

If the speaker election drags on, the situation would mark uncharted territory for the U.S. Congress. Since 1789, the election of a speaker has been the first order of business in every new House session. Prolonging this step could create political and legal uncertainty, particularly given the heightened scrutiny of the electoral process since the Capitol attack on January 6, 2021.

The Electoral Count Reform Act, enacted in response to that tumultuous day, aims to streamline the certification process and raise the threshold for challenging electoral results. However, even with these safeguards, a prolonged speaker battle could amplify partisan tensions and erode public confidence in the electoral process.

The Path Forward

Experts agree that the best solution remains the swift election of a speaker on January 3. Such a move would avoid unnecessary delays and ensure the Electoral College certification proceeds as planned.

“The political pressure on Republicans will be immense,” Muller said. “Failing to elect a speaker before January 6 would risk not only procedural chaos but also significant political fallout.”

As the clock ticks toward January 3, all eyes are on the Republican Party. Whether it can unite in time to avoid a constitutional crisis will be a defining moment for both the new Congress and the 2024 presidential election.