As the United States grapples with a staggering national debt that has now surpassed $40 trillion, economic confidence among Americans is plummeting. Economists are increasingly pointing to President Donald Trump’s policies as a significant factor in this downward spiral.

According to estimates, the budget deficit will balloon by an additional $2 trillion by 2026, triggering alarm among financial experts. Yet, one leading economist asserts that the crux of the issue extends beyond mere numbers—it’s rooted in public trust.

Dr. Justin Wolfers, an economist at the University of Michigan and a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, has studied the decline in public confidence in economic leadership. He argues that voters’ perceptions of government efficacy heavily influence their economic outlook.

“People assess the government’s performance as it relates to economic policy, and their opinions shape their views on future economic prospects,” Wolfers stated. “When policy is perceived as poor, it’s not surprising that pessimism prevails.”

Wolfers introduced a measure he calls “America’s confidence in our economic managers,” which is calculated by comparing the percentage of people rating the government’s economic management positively versus negatively. The results have been eye-opening, showing a massive shift from a +14 rating in late 2024 to a staggering +66 by May 2026—an unprecedented level of discontent.

This current figure eclipses the previous record of +52, noted during the 2011 debt ceiling crisis when Congress flirted with defaulting on national obligations.

Understanding the roots of this crisis requires a closer look. Wolfers emphasized that while economic textbooks outline fiscal and monetary policies, the public’s confidence in those implementing these policies is equally, if not more, critical.

“When it comes to the economy, it’s not just the numbers that matter. It’s also about whether people think the economic managers know what they’re doing,” he noted. “The harsh verdict from the public is a reflection of that trust.”

The data paints a grim picture for Trump’s administration. As Americans express growing dissatisfaction with economic management, the effect on the economy is tangible. Wolfers pointed out that this sentiment could reshape consumer spending and investment decisions, further straining economic growth.

“If the government’s seen as ineffective, that will breed caution among consumers and investors, eventually slowing down economic activity,” he explained.

A practical manifestation of this concern is the economic behavior of Trump himself and his administration, which Wolfers characterized as a form of crony capitalism. He argued that when individuals prioritize access to power over competition, the dynamics that typically drive market innovation and price reductions are disrupted.

“If the optimal route to success becomes winning favor with the president rather than producing better goods or services, then the market system starts breaking down,” he elaborated.

Wolfers believes the adverse effects of this approach are often underestimated. “One billionaire getting richer seems trivial in an economy of over 340 million. However, when competition is undermined, the outcomes become significantly more harmful for the average consumer,” he stressed.

The economist reiterated that the market’s intrinsic purpose is to foster competition, aiming for the best alternatives at the best prices. When this system is compromised, so too is the welfare of ordinary Americans.

As the 2026 budget approaches, the implications of these sentiments will weigh heavily on Trump and his economic advisors. The administration’s ability to turn public perception around appears increasingly daunting.

“The public is not misreading the economy; they’re discerning the government controlling it,” Wolfers concluded. “And today, their assessment has reached a record low.”

The path ahead for America’s economic future is fraught with uncertainty as long as these perceptions persist. With growing dissatisfaction looming in the shadows of a staggering deficit, the pressure is on Trump to restore faith in his economic leadership.

The upcoming months could prove pivotal. As public trust continues to erode, both the administration and the broader economy may face severe challenges in rebuilding confidence and fostering sustainable growth.