In a controversial move to address surging fuel prices, President Donald Trump announced an executive order that could have unexpected ramifications for his supporters and the agricultural community. While fans hailed the decision at a Nebraska campaign rally, economic experts are raising red flags about its true impact.

Signed on Monday evening, Trump’s order relaxes restrictions on the use of red-dyed diesel—a fuel typically reserved for farmers and construction crews—allowing truckers to use it without penalty until the end of the year. But critics, including economist Justin Wolfers, warn that this move may exacerbate supply issues for farmers during the critical harvest season.

Wolfers, a professor of economics, dissected Trump’s directive in a recent edition of his newsletter “Platypus Economics” and addressed its implications during an episode of his YouTube show. He noted that Trump appeared woefully uninformed about the fuel he was promoting. “Red dye diesel. Do you know what that is? I don’t know what the h— it is, but whatever it is, it’s supposed to be very good,” Trump told the crowd, highlighting his lack of clarity on the matter.

The president’s executive order allows truckers to fill up with red diesel, which is dyed to signify that the federal highway tax of 24.4 cents per gallon has not been paid. The White House claims this will save truckers about $60 per fill-up during a time of economic hardship.

However, Wolfers quickly countered that the administration’s calculations fail to account for the fundamental principles of economics. “That is not how economics works,” he stated, emphasizing that the energy truckers capitalize on must come from somewhere, and that “somewhere” is often the very fuel that farmers depend on.

He likened the situation to two swimming pools separated by a wall—removing the wall doesn’t increase the water supply. In practical terms, every gallon of red diesel that truckers take could mean one less for farmers, particularly crucial during the busy harvest season when demand spikes.

Wolfers also highlighted a peculiar stipulation in Trump’s order that tasks the agriculture secretary with ensuring that farmers can still access red diesel in high-demand areas. “That’s like knocking down the wall between the pools and then appointing a lifeguard to keep the red pool full,” he quipped.

The ripple effects of this order may extend beyond the farming sector. Homeowners who rely on heating oil are likely to face price increases as demand for red diesel saturates the market. Meanwhile, diesel suppliers, who are already reaping significant profits, could emerge as the primary benefactors of the policy.

“Saying that cutting taxes for truckers addresses the cost of living is nonsense,” Wolfers criticized. He insinuated that this initiative seems tailored to favor diesel companies and does little to assist everyday Americans grappling with rising living expenses.

Despite Trump’s optimistic rhetoric about “tax-free diesel” from the rally stage, the order merely defers tax payments instead of abolishing them. Whether the promised long-term relief transpires hinges on Congress—a fact that underscores the temporary nature of the policy.

As Wolfers put it, this arrangement resembles a “buy now, pay later” scheme for diesel fuel, with the terms of repayment remaining nebulous. “America doesn’t have a shortage of red dye,” he concluded pointedly. “We have a shortage of diesel.”

The executive order is set to remain in effect until December 31, leading experts to question whether this short-term fix might prompt long-term issues in fuel distribution and pricing. With farmers and homeowners potentially facing increased costs, the political ramifications could resonate into the next election cycle.

As the fallout from this directive unfolds, it challenges the notion of quick fixes in a delicate economic environment. Analysts are already watching closely to see how this plays out—not just for the trucking and agricultural sectors but for the broader economy.

With November elections on the horizon, this maneuver could shift critical voting blocs, as affected farmers and consumers voice their concerns. The president’s ability to navigate this issue could play a pivotal role in shaping his political future.

The implications of Trump’s red diesel order are far from settled. As it stands, both supporters and critics alike are left pondering what this means for the future of fuel pricing, agricultural needs, and domestic economic stability.