Leaked audio from a closed-door fundraiser has revealed Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton grappling with a troubling reality: his campaign for the U.S. Senate is faltering, and he believes that rising gas prices and geopolitical tensions, particularly related to President Donald Trump’s strategies, are playing significant roles in his struggles.

The recording, obtained by Axios, captures Paxton candidly describing how the ongoing conflict in Iran and soaring fuel costs are contributing to his campaign woes. Paxton’s remarks, made during a private event in Washington, D.C., to donors and lobbyists, underscore the candidate’s vulnerabilities as he faces increasing pressure from both sides of the political spectrum.

“It’s not tariffs. … It’s the war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel,” Paxton stated when asked about the issues dragging down his campaign. His comments reflect a departure from the traditional blame-game often played in elections, acknowledging external factors beyond his control.

Recognizing the impact of skyrocketing diesel prices, which have reportedly exceeded $6 per gallon, Paxton admitted, “When it’s over $6 per gallon for diesel … people are feeling the pinch.” Fuel costs, he noted, inadvertently inflate prices for food and other essentials, complicating household budgets.

Affordability has emerged as a significant concern, with Paxton labeling it “by far our biggest problem.” He suggested that the situation likely accounts for “why we’re having a hard time with numbers,” referring to his campaign’s polling figures.

When confronted by attendees about his inability to influence the war and gas prices, Paxton candidly agreed. “So many factors in this federal race are uncontrollable,” he said, indicating a sense of helplessness in navigating his campaign amidst turbulent national and international dynamics.

This admission stands in stark contrast to Paxton’s long-standing dedication to Trump, highlighting the tension between loyalty to the former president and the harsh realities of campaigning in a challenging economic climate.

In response to these challenges, Paxton outlined his tax cut plan aimed at alleviating some financial pressures. The proposal includes new housing and healthcare deductions along with an increased child tax credit, which he emphasized as crucial to helping Texas residents cope with rising costs.

“I’m just trying to figure out ways I can help people,” he asserted, reinforcing his commitment to legislative solutions while acknowledging the limits of his influence.

The Paxton campaign quickly dismissed the leak as a “non-story,” with a campaign official asserting that “President Trump is doing everything he can to bring prices down,” deflecting any implications of discord.

This audio leak is the third installment to emerge from the same fundraiser, which has provided a rare glimpse into Paxton’s unguarded reflections on his campaign’s trajectory. Previously, reports highlighted Paxton’s criticism of Trump’s midterm convention in Dallas, stating it “dropped our numbers,” suggesting that endorsement does not guarantee electoral success.

As the political landscape continues to shift, Paxton’s remarks come at a critical time. He is slated to join Trump for a rally in San Antonio on the very day the audio surfaced, demonstrating the complexities of his situation as he seeks to maintain party unity while confronting the realities of his campaign.

On the opposing side, Paxton faces Democratic state Representative James Talarico, who has been showing a narrow lead in recent polls. Should Talarico emerge victorious, he would mark a significant milestone as the first Democrat elected to the U.S. Senate from Texas since the 1980s, further heightening the stakes for Paxton.

Paxton’s path to the general election has already been tumultuous; he clinched his nomination by defeating Senator John Cornyn in a May runoff, achieving this despite Trump’s endorsement against the backdrop of a divided Senate GOP.

As the race intensifies, the impact of external factors such as fuel prices and international conflicts will continue to test not just Paxton’s campaign strategies, but the overall readiness of the Texas GOP to maintain its foothold in a rapidly changing political environment.

With the primaries behind him and November approaching, Paxton’s ability to navigate these challenging dynamics will be crucial in determining not only his fate in the Senate race but also the broader implications for his party’s robustness heading into the general election.

The revelations from the leaked audio serve as a reminder that even the most staunch political allies must reckon with the unpredictable nature of campaigning, where external circumstances can shift voter sentiment dramatically.