The Republican race for 2028 has not officially begun.
Donald Trump has not endorsed a successor.
JD Vance has not declared a presidential campaign.
Marco Rubio has not entered one either.
But Maggie Haberman already sees one Republican with the clearest path.
Speaking at the Texas Tribune Festival in Austin, the veteran New York Times Trump reporter said the 2028 Republican nomination is “likely JD Vance’s” if the vice president decides he wants it.
The comment came during a broader discussion among prominent White House reporters about what the Republican Party could look like after Trump.
NBC News correspondent Garrett Haake described several possible “lanes” for the eventual GOP field.
One would belong to the candidate most closely positioned as Trump’s chosen successor.
Haake said that person would presumably be Vance.
If Vance declined to run or became unavailable for some reason, Secretary of State Marco Rubio could fill that lane instead.
Haberman largely agreed.
But she added an important asterisk.
Vance’s position on the ongoing war with Iran could complicate his relationship with parts of Trump’s coalition and shape how a future campaign develops.
That caveat matters because Vance has long been associated with a more skeptical approach to U.S. military intervention abroad.
Haberman has previously reported that he privately raised concerns about the Iran conflict as Trump moved toward a more aggressive military posture.
At the same time, Vance has publicly defended the administration and remains one of Trump’s most visible political surrogates.
The vice president has also been active in national campaigning ahead of the 2026 midterms, giving him a ready-made platform for building relationships with Republican voters and donors around the country.
Still, no serious 2028 Republican race can be discussed without Trump himself.
The president has deliberately avoided making a formal choice between Vance and Rubio.
Instead, he has repeatedly encouraged speculation.
In May, Trump turned a White House Rose Garden dinner into an impromptu 2028 straw poll.
“Who likes JD Vance?” he asked the crowd.
After applause, he followed with: “Who likes Marco Rubio?”
Trump then suggested the two could make a “dream team.”
The official pool report from the event said Vance appeared to receive slightly more applause.
But Trump stopped well short of endorsing either man.
The spectacle reflected an unusual dynamic inside the Republican Party.
Ordinarily, a sitting vice president would immediately be viewed as the natural successor to a two-term president.
Vance certainly has many of those advantages.
He occupies the vice presidency.
He has strong ties to the MAGA movement.
He has cultivated relationships with conservative media figures and activists.
And he has become one of the administration’s most prominent defenders on television and on the campaign trail.
But Trump has never shown much interest in allowing anyone else to dominate Republican politics while he remains in office.
That has left Vance in a delicate position.
He needs Trump’s coalition if he runs.
But he also eventually needs to establish a political identity that survives beyond Trump.
Rubio faces a different challenge.
As secretary of state, the former Florida senator has held one of the administration’s most visible foreign-policy positions.
He also has a national political network dating back to his own 2016 presidential campaign.
Trump has repeatedly mentioned Rubio alongside Vance when discussing possible successors.
According to the Daily Beast’s account of the Tribune Festival discussion, Rubio has indicated that he would not run against Vance if the vice president entered the race.
Even that would not automatically make Vance’s path uncontested.
Other Republicans are already making moves that could position them for 2028.
The Washington Post reported this month that figures including Sens. Rick Scott, Ted Cruz, John Kennedy and Rand Paul have begun traveling, speaking or otherwise positioning themselves in ways that could become relevant to a presidential campaign.
Some of those potential candidates could offer a different ideological direction.
Vance represents a younger, populist strain of Republican politics closely associated with the MAGA movement.
Others could appeal to voters who want a return to more traditional conservative positions on foreign policy, free markets or government spending.
That is why Haberman’s comment should not be read as a declaration that the race is already decided.
It is an assessment of the current structure of the party.
And at the moment, Vance clearly occupies a position no other Republican can replicate.
He is Trump’s vice president.
He has access to the White House political operation.
He is regularly campaigning for Republican candidates.
And Trump continues to publicly place him near the top of the 2028 conversation.
But Trump himself remains the biggest uncertainty.
The Constitution’s 22nd Amendment bars anyone from being elected president more than twice.
Trump nevertheless continues to tease the idea of another run and has worn “Trump 2028” merchandise in public.
Recent remarks have also shown him beginning to discuss what life after the presidency might look like, even while continuing to joke or speculate about staying in power beyond his current term.
That ambiguity allows Trump to keep potential successors competing for his approval.
It also delays the moment when the Republican Party has to confront the central question of the post-Trump era:
Who inherits MAGA?
Haberman’s answer, at least for now, is JD Vance.
Not inevitably.
Not officially.
And not without potential complications.
But if Vance decides he wants the nomination, she believes the 2028 Republican field may already begin with him holding the strongest claim to Trump’s political inheritance.
