As the countdown to the midterm elections intensifies, Republican candidates in Alabama are sounding alarm bells over a potential downturn in voter engagement, a stark contrast to the party’s long-held dominance in the deeply conservative state.

Statewide, turnout during the May primary elections hovered at a mere 23%. While Democratic ballots surged compared to previous years, Republican participation stagnated, raising red flags for party officials. Matters seemed to worsen in the special congressional primaries held on August 13, where Republican turnout plummeted to an alarming 5%.

State Auditor Andrew Sorrell, a Republican seeking re-election, expressed his concerns, stating, “If we ever perform poorly in an election, it is not because people woke up and decided they were Democrats today. Anytime we lose, it is when our people stay home and don’t go vote.”

Alabama has been under Republican control since 2012, with Democrats holding a superminority in the legislature since 2010. They haven’t won a gubernatorial race in nearly three decades, but the current political climate is shifting, catching Republicans off guard.

Headwinds such as inflation and President Donald Trump’s declining popularity have stirred mounting anxiety within the GOP as they edge closer to the midterms. Despite redistricting efforts aimed at solidifying Republican seats—like the 2nd Congressional District—analysis from Sabato’s Crystal Ball has reevaluated its standing from “Likely Republican” to “Leans Republican.”

The shift is attributed in part to anticipated increases in Black voter turnout, which historically leans Democratic. Experts expect this demographic to engage more in the electoral process, particularly in the wake of Republican strategies aimed at removing Democratic incumbents.

“Maybe if it is higher Black enthusiasm, maybe if turnout is lower in, let’s say, the Wiregrass part of the state, you could see Rep. Figures getting a large turnout in Montgomery, whereas keeping the rural areas a little closer,” observed J. Miles Coleman, associate editor at The Center for Politics.

The Republican nominee for the 2nd District, Rhett Marques, has been vocal about the dire implications of low primary voter turnout. At a campaign event, he emphasized, “Voting is going to matter, not only for this state but for the direction of our country.”

Meanwhile, Democratic optimism is palpable among party leaders. Tabitha Isner, former vice chair of the Alabama Democratic Party, noted elevated levels of Democratic engagement this election cycle, stating, “Big picture, I think we are seeing higher than normal levels of Democratic engagement and we are seeing lower than normal levels of Republican engagement.”

The apparent apathy among Republican voters is not an isolated concern. Rep. Chris Pringle, a Republican from Mobile, acknowledged, “There is not an elected official or candidate in the United States of America who is not concerned about voter turnout.”

Historical patterns in voter turnout reflect that midterm elections typically see lower participation compared to presidential years. In 2024, turnout in Alabama was nearly 59%, marking a 30-year low. Comparatively, the midterm elections of 2022 saw only about 38% participation.

Trump’s ability to mobilize voters, particularly in rural areas, fueled the Republican rise in recent elections, but with him absent from the ballot this time, concerns about retaining voter enthusiasm grow.

Former Alabama Republican Party Chair John Wahl underscored the urgency as he stated, “The Democratic base is excited. They are not happy with what is going on in Washington. They don’t like Donald Trump, and they are engaged in this election process.”

According to election data, Democratic primary ballots accounted for 43% of votes this year, a significant increase from 22% in the last election cycle. This enthusiasm reflects gains in critical counties such as Madison, Mobile, and Tuscaloosa that could be pivotal for upcoming races.

If voter engagement numbers mirror those seen in the primaries during the general elections, Democrats could outpace Republicans, shifting the balance in local and state elections. “If the same thing happens in the general election where Democrats are seeing the same level of increase, we ought to be winning some statewide seats,” Isner noted.

Political scientists caution, however, that while midterm dynamics may favor Democrats, the Republican base’s historical ability to rally around established candidates may still play a significant role. Deep-rooted loyalty to the GOP remains a potent factor in Alabama.

Looking forward, Sorrell concluded, Republicans hold a responsibility to rekindle enthusiasm among their base, emphasizing that the onus falls on candidates to motivate their supporters to vote.

As Alabama gears up for a contentious election season, both parties are acutely aware that turnout will be the key determinant in determining who holds power in the state for years to come.