In a move that has generated significant controversy, Missouri Republican officials are clinging to a congressional map fraught with legal challenges as they prepare for upcoming elections. Despite earlier setbacks at the U.S. Supreme Court and a state Supreme Court ruling declaring the map invalid, the party persists in its quest to re-establish the map ahead of the November vote.

The GOP’s latest effort to resurrect the map will be contested this Thursday before the 8th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals. The path ahead appears turbulent, with experts calling the likelihood of success exceedingly slim.

Former Missouri Supreme Court Judge Michael Wolff characterized the Republicans’ challenges as fraught with insurmountable obstacles. He emphasizes that the Missouri Supreme Court serves as the final arbiter of state law, which has already determined that the proposed map never took effect.

“The Supreme Court of Missouri is the final authority on what Missouri law is,” Wolff stated, noting that the map has not been approved by a vote of the people and thus lacks legal standing.

Legal experts predict that even if the 8th Circuit rules in favor of the Republicans, the U.S. Supreme Court’s order blocking the implementation of their desired map will remain binding. “The chances are between zero and zero,” added Wolff.

On the ground, Republican leaders maintain hope. Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe expressed optimism for the upcoming appeals court deliberation, reiterating that voters deserve clarity. Kehoe, who previously called a special session to redraw the state’s congressional districts, stated, “I look forward to the 8th Circuit’s consideration of the merits of the Missouri First Map.”

The urgency is palpable as the 8th Circuit has scheduled remote oral arguments just days before a critical federal deadline for sending ballots to military and overseas voters.

This legal battle stems from a lawsuit filed by various Republican figures, including U.S. Representative Bob Onder and state Senator Rick Brattin, following a Missouri Supreme Court ruling that permitted a referendum petition challenging the new map.

On September 3, the state court declared that the 2025 districts were never in effect, mandating that they be put to a vote as Proposition A on November 3. The ruling effectively forces Missouri to conduct its general election using the same districts employed in the 2022 elections.

The legal implications are complex. The Missouri GOP argues that alternating between congressional maps for the primary and general election violates the U.S. Constitution by effectively devaluing the votes cast in the primary.

Chief U.S. District Judge Stephen Clark had previously concurred with this argument, issuing a temporary restraining order to prevent the state from using any congressional map other than the contested 2025 plan.

However, legal uncertainty deepened when the 8th Circuit declined to initially hear Clark’s order, claiming it lacked jurisdiction over temporary restraining orders. Following this, People Not Politicians—advocating for the referendum—went directly to the U.S. Supreme Court.

In a decisive turn, the Supreme Court intervened, stopping Clark’s order without dissent and indicating that its stay would continue while the case is reconsidered by the 8th Circuit.

This means that even if the appeals court favors the GOP’s arguments, the 2025 map would not automatically be reinstated. Consequently, local election officials have been thrown into disarray as they await judicial determinations on which districts to use.

With the September 19 deadline looming for military and overseas ballots, clarity is desperately needed. Local officials have faced confusion as they prepared to revert back to the 2022 map.

The issue has left both the public and legal teams in a state of uncertainty. “I think we’re done, judge, as a practical matter,” shared Chuck Hatfield, representing People Not Politicians, reflecting on how the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision seemingly dulled the immediate stakes of the federal appeal.

Moving forward, a critical question remains regarding the role of Missouri’s Attorney General Catherine Hanaway. Her office has, for the moment, avoided clear commitments on the future strategy following the Supreme Court’s intervention and the reversal of the Secretary of State’s directives.

As the 8th Circuit prepares to hear arguments this week, the situation remains fluid. The legal landscape surrounding Missouri’s congressional map may be complicated, but one thing is clear: the outcome of this battle could have lasting implications for the electoral process in the state.