In an unexpected shift, a recent poll indicates that support for a proposed abortion ban in Missouri may be faltering just weeks ahead of a critical vote. Professor Steven Rogers of Saint Louis University, who oversees the SLU/YouGov Poll, says the new data has made him rethink the direction of the upcoming election.
The poll, conducted from August 13 to August 24, surveyed 900 likely voters in Missouri. It revealed that 44% of respondents opposed the abortion ban, while 43% supported it, leaving 13% unsure. This shift brings uncertainty to a proposal that many expected would easily pass in November.
Missouri’s voters will soon decide whether to repeal a reproductive rights amendment approved in 2024, which established protections for abortion up to the point of fetal viability. The proposal, listed as Amendment 3, seeks to reinstate an abortion ban with few exceptions, specifically for survivors of rape and incest and medical emergencies.
While support for the abortion ban remains strong among men and Republicans, the results show a stark contrast in opinion between different demographics. According to the poll, 46% of men support the ban compared to just 40% of women. Moreover, Republican voters back the proposal at nearly three times the rate of Democrats, with 65% favoring it compared to only 20% of Democrats.
Support for the abortion ban is particularly pronounced in southeast and northwest Missouri, while residents of the Kansas City and St. Louis metro areas express significant opposition.
Tom Estes, a prominent figure in the campaign advocating for the ban, responded to the poll’s findings on social media, asserting, “The path is there. Let’s get it done.”
This polling data marks a notable change from earlier surveys. In February, there was an 11-point advantage for the ban, with 50% of respondents indicating support. This latest survey appears to signal a shift as voters increasingly focus on the implications of Amendment 3.
Opponents of the abortion ban are gaining momentum as public attention begins to sharpen. Tom Bastian, a spokesperson for the opposition campaign Stop the Ban, noted that Missourians are becoming more aware of how the amendment would undermine previously established rights. “As more Missourians are tuning in to the election, it’s not surprising to see a growing number of voters saying NO to Amendment 3,” he stated.
The 2024 vote that implemented the current reproductive rights amendment passed with a narrow majority of 51.6% among the nearly 3 million Missourians who voted. Earlier polling from February 2024 had indicated that 52% of surveyed individuals would support further protection of reproductive rights, while only 34% favored maintaining the ban.
Rogers highlighted a trend within specific demographics; interviews with respondents who participated in both February and August polls revealed a notable shift. Approximately 17% of those who originally supported the ban changed their stance to opposition, while 14% flipped from negative to positive views.
Interestingly, the August poll concentrated solely on Amendment 3, whereas the earlier survey also examined opinions on gender-affirming care. While 59% of Missourians expressed support for abortion access up to at least eight weeks, a striking 66% opposed access to gender-affirming healthcare for minors.
This connection to gender-affirming care is crucial; if passed, Amendment 3 would also embed a ban on gender-affirming healthcare for minors into the state constitution, a regulation already in effect since 2023 and upheld earlier this year by the Missouri Supreme Court.
Proponents of Amendment 3 argue this permanent ban is essential, especially since the current prohibition on puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones is due to expire in 2027, while the prohibition on surgeries is permanent. Critics contend that tying the ban on gender-affirming healthcare to the abortion amendment serves as “ballot candy,” a tactic to rally support for the abortion ban.
Rogers noted a general trend of dwindling support across the political spectrum, including among non-white voters. He attributes some of this decline to the inclusion of the gender-affirming care ban, which he believes has shifted opinions.
He emphasized that the increased opposition from various groups—including younger voters, the elderly, and men—could signify growing discontent toward current political leadership.
Both President Donald Trump and Missouri Governor Mike Kehoe have also experienced plummeting approval ratings, as indicated by the same voter survey. This dissatisfaction has been reflected in recent election outcomes, where significant Republican proposals have failed to gain traction.
As the November election approaches, the polling highlights a politically charged environment, indicating that Amendment 3 may face an uphill battle. Should the trend of opposition continue, it could lead to significant consequences for reproductive rights in Missouri, making the upcoming vote one of great importance.
