In a surprising turn of events, a new poll released this week indicates that for the first time in its six-year history, President Donald Trump’s approval rating in Missouri has dipped into negative territory. The St. Louis University/YouGov survey shows a growing disapproval among Missouri residents for both Trump and Governor Mike Kehoe.
The recent poll, conducted between August 13 and August 24, reveals that 52% of respondents express disapproval or strong disapproval of Trump’s presidency, while only 47% approve. This represents a significant drop of 19 percentage points in Trump’s net approval rating since he assumed office at the beginning of 2025, with a staggering 14-point decline just since February.
Kehoe, who has also witnessed a dramatic decline, maintains an approval rating of just 39%, down from 50% in February. His disapproval rate now stands at 49%, marking the first time the governor has recorded such negative feedback since taking office.
Polling director Steve Rogers of St. Louis University attributes this downturn to a combination of “MAGA fatigue” and the voters’ dissatisfaction with current national issues, particularly the ongoing conflict in Iran and rising inflation. Rogers suggests that the current discontent could lead to decreased turnout from Trump’s base, reminiscent of the midterm election dynamics observed during Trump’s first presidency.
Rogers highlighted that in the 2018 midterms, a period when the Democrats made significant gains in Missouri, disenchanted Trump supporters may have stayed home, setting a concerning precedent for Republicans facing the upcoming elections.
The implications of this decline extend beyond presidential approval ratings. The poll also signaled trouble for Republicans in Missouri as the November elections draw near. In a closely contested race for State Auditor, incumbent Republican Scott Fitzpatrick is leading Democrat Quentin Wilson by a narrow margin of just two points—45% to 43%—far less than the comfortable margins Republicans enjoyed in previous election cycles.
This election cycle, the competitive landscape is markedly different; despite being less than two years since earlier polls showed Republican candidates commanding at least a 13-point lead in statewide races, the current environment underscores a troubling shift as they contend with significant dissatisfaction among voters.
Leading to Kehoe’s faltering approval are various policies he has championed that have struck a chord of unpopularity. From tax breaks aimed at bolstering sports stadiums to ballot measures that were overwhelmingly rejected, these decisions appear to have taken a toll on his standing with Missouri voters.
Another area of concern for both Kehoe and Trump is their response to critical local issues, particularly regarding the cost of living. Poll respondents expressed considerable anxiety over affordability in relation to healthcare, groceries, and gasoline, with a notable majority indicating struggles to manage utility bills.
Compounding their challenges, the poll indicates that voter approval for the president holds significantly more sway over legislative candidates than their local reputations do, presenting a formidable hurdle as Republicans seek to bolster their positions ahead of the upcoming elections.
As the November elections approach, Missourians face two contentious ballot measures: Amendment 3, which seeks to reintroduce stringent abortion bans, and Proposition A, a redistricting referendum that has left many voters confused. The support for both measures remains tenuous, with polls showing them nearly evenly split among the electorate.
These uncertainties indicate a broader disconnect or confusion among voters. With significant percentages of undecided responses, it’s clear there has yet to be a cohesive campaign that effectively communicates the implications of these ballot measures.
Educational reforms also surfaced in the polling data, with a strong inclination among respondents to support Governor Kehoe’s proposal for grading schools on an A-F scale based on standardized testing and graduation rates. Despite this, public sentiment about the quality of education varies, as the majority of Missourians provide higher grades for their local schools compared to the state average.
Notably, there is an overwhelming consensus that teacher salaries should increase—81% of participants advocate for better compensation—reflecting a recognition of the critical role educators play in shaping future generations.
While the political landscape appears to be shifting against Republican leadership in Missouri, it remains to be seen how these current trends will impact upcoming elections. The next round of polling in February could offer crucial insights into whether Kehoe and Trump’s approval ratings can rebound or if their decline will continue to echo through November and beyond.
The findings from this survey underscore not only a mounting discontent towards the governor and the president but also manifest challenges for Republicans as they navigate a complex political landscape weighted with voter dissatisfaction and economic anxiety.
