For years, millions of Republican voters appeared willing to tolerate Donald Trump’s chaos, scandals and personal conduct because they believed he could deliver one overriding benefit: a strong economy.

Now that bargain is beginning to break down.

Sarah Longwell, a former Republican strategist and publisher of The Bulwark, says the combination of economic pain and Trump’s apparent fixation on personal projects has pushed many persuadable voters away—leaving the president increasingly dependent on his most devoted supporters.

That creates an immediate crisis for Republican candidates ahead of the midterm elections.

Trump’s loyal base may turn out enthusiastically when his name appears on the ballot. But when he is not running, some of those voters may stay home. Meanwhile, the swing voters Republicans need are becoming frustrated with a president they see as distracted from the problems affecting their lives.

Trump, Longwell warned, has become “the albatross around their neck.”

The “Faustian bargain” begins to fail

Speaking on Morning Joe, Longwell described the choice some Republican and swing voters made as a “Faustian bargain.”

They may have disliked Trump’s behavior or questioned his character, but they viewed him as a businessman and remembered the economy during his first term favorably.

“Therefore, I’ll just take a flier on him, even though I know he’s not a very good person,” Longwell said, summarizing the reasoning she has heard from voters.

That trade-off can survive controversy when people feel financially secure.

“Voters will tolerate a lot if they have a good economy,” she explained.

But when prices rise, household finances deteriorate and economic confidence falls, the calculation changes. Voters become less willing to overlook behavior that previously appeared secondary.

“If they don’t [have a good economy], and you’re focused on all of these other things, they are out on you,” Longwell said.

Her assessment is based partly on focus groups and should not be treated as a substitute for national polling. But it offers a window into how persuadable voters explain their changing attitudes in their own words.

“Why does he keep talking about his ballroom?”

The frustration is not limited to policy.

Longwell said voters participating in her focus groups increasingly mention Trump’s fixation on expensive construction and legacy projects, including his White House ballroom, proposed arch and changes around the Reflecting Pool.

Normally, she explained, such stories might seem too distant from everyday concerns to influence political opinion.

But voters are now connecting them directly to Trump’s priorities.

“Why does he keep talking about his ballroom when things are so bad?” Longwell said participants ask.

They point to the continuing conflict with Iran, rising household expenses and other unresolved problems while Trump promotes projects associated with his own image.

The criticism is not simply that Trump supports a ballroom. It is that he appears preoccupied with monuments and aesthetics while voters worry about rent, fuel and the broader cost of living.

“Voters are really aware that Donald Trump is distracted from the things that he said he was going to do,” Longwell said.

A looming convention disaster

Former Republican congressman and Morning Joe host Joe Scarborough pointed to warnings from veteran GOP strategist Karl Rove about the party’s approaching convention in Dallas.

Rove reportedly expects Trump’s appearance to become a political liability if the president delivers another sprawling speech focused on personal grievances and construction projects rather than affordability.

Republican candidates want the convention to provide a disciplined message about the economy and their plans for governing.

Trump could instead dominate the event by discussing his ballroom while families worry about rent—or highlighting the Reflecting Pool while business owners struggle with fuel expenses.

Every diversion would give Democrats new material and force GOP candidates to answer for a president they cannot control.

That is the trap: Republicans need Trump to motivate the party’s base, but his prominence could repel the voters required to win competitive races.

Down to the hardcore base

Longwell believes Trump’s support is increasingly concentrated among loyalists who identify specifically with him rather than with the Republican Party as an institution.

Those supporters “will turn out in droves” when Trump himself is running, she said.

Midterms are different.

Without Trump’s name on the ballot, parts of his coalition may lack the same enthusiasm. His rallies can generate attention, but attention does not automatically transfer to another candidate.

At the same time, moderate Republicans, independents and swing voters may view Trump as the reason to vote against the GOP.

That combination—reduced participation from Trump-only voters and increased opposition from dissatisfied moderates—could prove devastating in closely divided states and districts.

A party hollowed out around one man

The crisis extends beyond a single election.

Longwell argued that Trump has transformed the Republican Party into a political organization dependent on his personality, instincts and ability to command attention.

“He has hollowed out the Republican Party to such a degree that in a post-Donald Trump world, this party has no idea how to function,” she said.

Traditional Republican institutions have weakened. Policy agendas have become secondary to loyalty tests. Candidates often rise by imitating Trump, but Longwell believes few possess his unique ability to dominate national politics.

“Trump is a stand-alone figure,” she said. “There’s not a lot of people who can come along and do what he’s done.”

That leaves the GOP facing a future for which it has made little preparation. Trump cannot lead the movement forever, but the party has not built a clear identity independent of him.

Democrats still face their own problem

Longwell does not believe Republican frustration automatically guarantees Democratic victories.

She repeatedly hears voters express anger toward the GOP while remaining reluctant to support Democrats.

That disconnect presents Democrats with both an opportunity and a warning.

To capitalize, Longwell said, Democrats must go on offense, reconnect with working-class voters and articulate a vision capable of sustaining a multiracial democracy.

She described the current moment as a “generational opportunity” to consign MAGA to “the ash heap of history.”

But that will happen only if Democrats give disaffected voters a compelling alternative.

Trump’s bargain with voters may be collapsing. The Republican Party he reshaped may no longer know how to operate without him.

The unresolved question is whether Democrats can turn that historic weakness into something larger than temporary outrage.