With Republicans fighting to save their congressional majorities, an extraordinary theory is beginning to circulate inside conservative circles: What if Donald Trump is not especially interested in helping them win?

As the midterm elections rapidly approach, Trump’s approval rating is deeply underwater, Republican candidates are struggling in races that should be safe, and a pro-Trump super PAC is reportedly sitting on more than $400 million.

Yet the promised financial cavalry has not arrived on anything close to the scale party officials expected.

That combination has prompted some conservative commentators to consider a politically explosive possibility—that Trump might be more comfortable spending the final two years of his presidency fighting a Democratic Congress than accepting complete responsibility for a Republican-controlled Washington.

There is no direct evidence that Trump has deliberately decided to sabotage his party. But conservatives examining his conduct say the theory increasingly deserves attention.

A president who “needs a villain”

Frank Miele of RealClearPolitics laid out the argument in stark terms, suggesting that Trump may see political benefits in a Democratic takeover of Congress.

“He needs a villain,” Miele wrote. “And until communists start running under their own name, the Democrats will have to do.”

National Review senior political correspondent Jim Geraghty amplified the argument, noting that a Democratic Congress would give Trump enemies to denounce, policies to veto and investigations to portray as political persecution.

Under that scenario, Trump could once again present himself as a besieged protector standing between his supporters and a Democratic agenda.

“If they actually regain control of Congress, the threat of their socialist policies will loom large,” Geraghty wrote while summarizing Miele’s argument.

Trump, he added, could wield his veto “as a mighty sword” while blaming Democrats for gridlock and portraying himself as the final defender of conservative institutions.

It would be a familiar role for a politician who has built much of his movement around conflict, grievance and the identification of enemies.

Republican control means Republican responsibility

The political calculation described by Miele rests on a simple problem for Trump: When Republicans control the presidency, House and Senate, there is nobody else to blame.

Every failed promise, stalled bill and internal dispute belongs to the party in power.

Trump can attack Democratic leaders such as Chuck Schumer without risking a rupture inside his own coalition. Republican lawmakers are more complicated. They have competing constituencies, legislative priorities and political vulnerabilities that do not always align with the president’s demands.

“When Republicans control the White House, House, and Senate, Trump owns Washington,” Miele wrote. “There is nobody else to blame when Congress doesn’t enact his program.”

A Democratic victory would immediately change that dynamic.

Investigations, subpoenas and possible impeachment efforts could allow Trump to return to the political terrain on which he has frequently thrived: portraying himself as the victim of a powerful establishment determined to destroy him.

“Every subpoena, investigation, and impeachment threat becomes political oxygen for Trump,” Miele argued. “He gets to be persecuted again.”

A $400 million question

Fueling the speculation is the reported conduct of MAGA Inc., the Trump-supporting super PAC sitting on a war chest exceeding $400 million.

Earlier reporting suggested Trump’s political operation intended to begin deploying significant resources around Memorial Day. According to Miele, that spending never materialized on the anticipated scale.

Memorial Day passed. Then Labor Day arrived.

Meanwhile, Republican candidates continued fighting for survival in competitive races.

The delay has become especially conspicuous as GOP Senate candidates face danger in states including Texas, Iowa and Ohio—contests Republicans would normally expect to control.

“With midterms just 57 days away, Trump is almost 17 points underwater in the RealClearPolitics Average,” Miele wrote, asking whether the president truly wants Republicans to retain both chambers.

The theory does not establish that Trump is intentionally withholding money to engineer defeat. Campaign organizations often delay spending for strategic reasons, and late advertising can have substantial impact.

But with time disappearing, nervous Republicans are asking why such an enormous fund has not been used more aggressively.

From redistricting demands to apparent distance

Trump did not always appear detached from the battle for congressional control.

Only a year ago, he pushed Republicans to pursue redistricting efforts designed to improve the party’s electoral position. That intervention suggested a president acutely focused on protecting his power in Congress.

“But that was then,” Miele wrote.

More recently, Trump has continued urging candidates to campaign on the administration’s record—even as Democrats use that same record to attack Republicans over unpopular policies and the president’s weak approval numbers.

“He is still urging Republicans to run on their record, on his record, and that has to be scary,” Miele argued. “After all, Democrats are running on Trump’s record too—reminding voters just how little they like it.”

Trump’s interests may no longer match the GOP’s

The darkest element of the conservative theory is that Trump’s personal political interests and the Republican Party’s survival may be moving in different directions.

Republicans need legislative power to pass laws, confirm priorities and protect vulnerable members. Trump may benefit more from confrontation, blame and the spectacle of permanent warfare against Democratic adversaries.

Geraghty suggested that a president who prefers scapegoats over legislative partners appears “semi-retired from the presidency”—more interested in performing opposition than carrying the burden of governing.

Again, the argument remains speculation. Trump has not publicly said he wants Republicans to lose, and he continues calling for GOP victories.

But if Republicans suffer a major defeat while hundreds of millions of dollars remain unused, this theory will become far harder to dismiss.

Trump could lose Congress and immediately gain what has always powered his politics: an enemy, a grievance and someone else to blame.