Republicans entered the 2026 election cycle convinced that Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff was one of the most vulnerable incumbents in America.
Georgia had voted for Donald Trump in 2024. Ossoff was seeking reelection in a state that remains deeply competitive. A strong Republican challenger could potentially flip the seat—and bring the GOP closer to securing control of the Senate.
Instead, Trump-backed Rep. Mike Collins is trailing by high single digits, struggling to raise money and battling a series of damaging controversies.
Now Republican strategists fear the campaign once considered a toss-up may already be slipping beyond recovery.
“There’s a general concern that Collins isn’t the right candidate or running the right campaign to defeat Ossoff,” Inside Elections editor Nathan Gonzales told The Wall Street Journal.
A prized opportunity turns ‘firmly blue’
Georgia has become one of the defining battlegrounds of modern American politics.
Trump carried the state in 2016, lost it narrowly in 2020 and reclaimed it in 2024. Republicans therefore viewed Ossoff’s seat as a critical opportunity in their fight to maintain Senate power.
But political analysts who once rated the race as competitive are increasingly shifting toward Democrats.
The Wall Street Journal reported that most political professionals now view the contest as “firmly blue.” That represents a major disappointment for Republicans—and potentially a crucial breakthrough for Democrats facing a difficult path to a Senate majority.
Recent polling reinforces the concern.
An InsiderAdvantage survey showed Ossoff leading Collins by eight percentage points. A separate poll conducted by Fabrizio Ward placed the Democrat nine points ahead.
Polls remain snapshots rather than guarantees, and the race is not over. But with the election approaching, Collins is running out of time to change its direction.
A staggering fundraising gap
The financial difference between the candidates is even more alarming for Republicans.
Federal Election Commission filings cited by the Journal show that Ossoff had raised approximately $98 million during the current term as of June 30. That includes an extraordinary $77.3 million collected since the beginning of 2025.
Collins, by comparison, had raised only $7.4 million since entering the race last year.
The difference gives Ossoff an enormous advantage in television advertising, digital outreach, organizing and voter mobilization. It also allows the Democrat to define Collins before the Republican can afford to introduce himself effectively to undecided voters.
Ossoff’s fierce opposition to Trump appears to be energizing Democratic donors nationally. Collins, meanwhile, has struggled to make his central message—that Ossoff is too far left for Georgia—break through.
Georgia Republican strategist Jordan Fuchs blamed the campaign’s difficulties on “lackluster fundraising” combined with controversies involving Collins’ staff and family.
A ‘summer of scandal’
One of the most damaging controversies involves Collins’ son-in-law, David Alan Scheer II.
CNN reported in July that Scheer had shared social-media posts promoting antisemitic and white-nationalist views. He also reportedly called for the deportation of all Muslims and spread antisemitic conspiracy theories.
Voter and property records reviewed by reporters indicated that Scheer lives on property owned by Collins.
Collins condemned the remarks and emphasized that his son-in-law plays no role in the campaign. Nothing in the reporting establishes that Collins endorsed or shared Scheer’s views.
Nevertheless, the episode became part of what the Journal described as a “summer of scandal”—a succession of negative headlines preventing Collins from focusing exclusively on Ossoff’s record.
In a closely divided state, every week spent answering questions about controversy is a week lost persuading voters.
Republicans fear damage down the ballot
The anxiety extends far beyond the Senate race.
GOP strategists and pollsters worry that a weak Collins campaign could depress Republican enthusiasm and create problems for candidates competing in other statewide contests.
Georgia’s gubernatorial race is reportedly close, with Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms attempting to become the state’s first Democratic governor elected since 1998.
Republicans must also defend offices ranging from attorney general to insurance commissioner. Democrats are even mounting a long-shot effort to capture the Georgia House, which the GOP has controlled since 2005.
A strong Senate nominee would normally help mobilize voters and support the rest of the ticket. A candidate trailing badly, underfunded and surrounded by negative coverage could have the opposite effect.
That possibility has transformed Collins from the Republican Party’s chosen weapon against Ossoff into a potential liability for candidates across Georgia.
Trump’s endorsement faces a brutal test
Trump’s ability to dominate Republican primaries remains one of his greatest political powers. But winning a nomination and winning a statewide general election are entirely different challenges.
Collins has embraced Trump and tried to portray Ossoff as hostile to Georgia’s values. So far, the available polling suggests that strategy has failed to expand his support sufficiently beyond the Republican base.
Ossoff has responded by turning the campaign into a referendum on Trump, using his opposition to the president to raise record-breaking sums and energize Democratic voters.
Republicans still have time to attack Ossoff’s record, consolidate their coalition and narrow the gap. Georgia’s recent history proves that close elections can shift quickly.
But strategists quoted by the Journal are confronting an increasingly uncomfortable reality: A seat the GOP believed it could capture is moving in the opposite direction.
Trump chose Collins to help Republicans defeat Jon Ossoff. Instead, his candidate may be helping Democrats prove that even in a state Trump won, MAGA loyalty is no substitute for money, discipline—and a campaign capable of reaching voters beyond the president’s base.
