In a surprising setback for House Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-LA) efforts to secure Republican control of the House, candidate Laurie Buckhout has been suspended from the prediction market Kalshi after admitting to betting on her own congressional election.
This scandal emerged when Buckhout revealed she purchased contracts related to her congressional race, incurring a hefty penalty. Kalshi, which suspended her for three years and imposed a fine of $2,589.96, stated that her actions violated their rules designed to prevent conflicts of interest.
“I bet on myself. Literally,” Buckhout told Carolina Journal, describing the move as a “dumb mistake.” She added that upon realizing the issue, she acted promptly to address it. “Safe to say my career as a Kalshi trader was short-lived,” she quipped.
Buckhout’s contrition follows a recent elevation by Speaker Johnson, who campaigned alongside her in Greenville, North Carolina, just weeks before the announcement.
At a rally on August 4, Johnson emphasized the importance of North Carolina’s 1st congressional district in his strategy to maintain the Republican majority in Congress. “This district is essential,” he declared.
As part of a broader strategy, Johnson set ambitious fundraising goals, aiming to collect $400 million for roughly 20 House races, including Buckhout’s, by November.
The district had been redrawn to favor Republicans, with new political analyses rating it R+5, a welcome shift from D+1 under the previous map. This indicates a significant strategic advantage for the GOP in the upcoming election.
Despite the revamped districting, Buckhout is facing a challenging campaign against Democratic Rep. Don Davis, who edged her out in the 2024 race by just over 6,000 votes, with a close score of 49.5% to 47.8%.
The Kalshi rule Buckhout violated, marked as Rule 5.17(z), bars anyone with influence over an event’s outcome from trading on it. This rule aims to uphold the integrity of the prediction market.
Following her cooperation with the inquiry into her betting activities, Buckhout accepted the findings of the investigation and the penalties imposed by Kalshi.
Details surrounding Buckhout’s exact betting activity remain murky, including the specific contracts she traded and the date of her wager. Reports indicate she made the bet shortly after Johnson’s campaign visit.
The timing of her suspension raises questions about the impact this incident may have on her candidacy and Johnson’s goal of retaining the House majority.
Earlier this year, Kalshi imposed similar penalties on several candidates, including a five-year suspension for three individuals involved in similar conflicts of interest, putting additional pressure on the integrity of political betting markets.
In a related move, former Rep. George Santos (R-NY) was also permanently banned from Kalshi for betting on whether he would attend a significant congressional address this year.
Kalshi spokesperson Jacki McGavick confirmed that violations can lead to severe repercussions, ranging from lost profits to extended suspensions or even bans.
As the political landscape heats up, betting on the North Carolina 1st district continues, with Kalshi reporting a volume of $74,393 in trades. Current market estimates give Davis a 61% chance of winning, while Buckhout stands at 41%.
The stakes are undeniably high, not just for Buckhout but for the Republican strategy in upcoming elections. This incident could have lasting ramifications, reshaping how candidates engage with prediction markets and influence future fundraising efforts.
As the November election approaches, Buckhout’s campaign will need to navigate the fallout from this incident carefully, as well as the ongoing challenges posed by her opponent and the shifting political tides in North Carolina.
