Donald Trump and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent spent Tuesday suggesting that a breakthrough with Iran could be only hours away.

Inside the administration, the assessment was reportedly far more disturbing.

After months of war, military strikes, disrupted shipping and soaring energy prices, some American officials privately fear the United States is “back at square one.”

CNN White House correspondent Kristen Holmes described the deepening uncertainty during an appearance with anchor Brianna Keilar.

Trump and Bessent had suggested that an agreement to restore navigation through the Strait of Hormuz might materialize as early as Tuesday.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio then offered a crucial qualification.

There had been progress, he said, but “no finality.”

Iran was not publicly confirming direct negotiations with Washington. Tehran said its discussions involved Oman and warned that American naval actions could trigger a military response.

The emerging proposal also appeared to be a temporary arrangement designed to reduce immediate tensions—not a comprehensive agreement ending the war.

“What they’re talking about is a very short stopgap,” Holmes explained.

Mediators were attempting to create enough space to bring the two governments back to negotiations.

But there were no direct U.S.-Iran talks underway.

That means the administration was celebrating the possibility of an agreement to begin rebuilding a process that had already existed before the conflict escalated.

“It really does feel, from talking to U.S. officials, that we are back at square one,” Holmes said.

The phrase carries devastating implications.

Trump presented the war as a demonstration of overwhelming American power that would permanently weaken Iran, secure the Strait of Hormuz and force Tehran into a more favorable agreement.

Months later, Washington is again relying on regional intermediaries to restart negotiations over the same fundamental issues.

The Strait remains the central pressure point.

Approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil supply normally passes through the narrow waterway. Restrictions, attacks and military operations there have disrupted global shipping and driven volatility across energy markets.

Iran views control over access as one of its strongest remaining assets.

American officials consequently believe Tehran will resist surrendering that leverage without binding concessions from Washington.

Trump wants unrestricted international passage without Iranian tolls or political control.

Iran has reportedly discussed an arrangement with Oman under which the two countries would oversee different shipping lanes and collect fees connected with security and environmental services.

Those positions remain far apart.

Reuters reported that Iran acknowledged talks with Oman but denied Trump’s suggestion that direct negotiations with the United States had resumed.

Qatar and other mediators said progress was being made behind the scenes.

That is meaningful—but mediation is not an agreement.

The danger remained visible even as officials spoke optimistically.

A commercial vessel was struck near the strait Tuesday, underscoring how quickly a single attack, miscalculation or disputed interception could reverse diplomatic movement.

Iranian officials also threatened retaliation against the U.S. Navy if Washington intensified its blockade.

Markets nevertheless reacted enthusiastically to the possibility of a deal.

Oil prices fell, while American stock indexes rose sharply after Bessent said an agreement could arrive “today or tomorrow.”

Financial markets price expectations, not certainties. Their rally demonstrated how badly investors wanted de-escalation, not that de-escalation had been achieved.

Rubio’s language was therefore much more cautious than the administration’s celebratory headlines.

“There’s been progress in the talks, but no finality yet,” he said. ABC News documented the conflicting statements and confirmed that no direct talks were formally scheduled.

Even a successful short-term arrangement would leave the hardest questions unanswered.

Would Iran permanently guarantee unrestricted passage through Hormuz?

Would the United States lift its blockade or ease sanctions?

Would Tehran accept new restrictions on its nuclear program?

Would the two countries stop military operations, and how would any ceasefire be enforced?

None of those issues appeared resolved.

The administration may be pursuing a narrow first step because a broader settlement remains unreachable.

A temporary reopening of shipping lanes could lower energy prices and reduce the immediate risk of naval confrontation. It could also give mediators time to establish direct talks.

That would be valuable.

But it would not validate Trump’s repeated claims that the war had already achieved decisive results.

American weapons stockpiles have been severely depleted. Service members have been killed and injured. Global energy flows have been disrupted, and regional tensions remain dangerously high.

Iran still possesses the ability to threaten commercial shipping and use the strait as bargaining leverage.

Trump’s military campaign may have damaged Iranian forces and infrastructure, but the political objective remains elusive.

The president is now threatening Iran with a “last chance” while simultaneously insisting that a deal is imminent.

That combination is not unusual in coercive diplomacy. Threats and optimism are often deployed together to pressure an opponent.

The risk is that public deadlines create pressure for escalation when the promised agreement fails to appear.

For now, mediators are working. Iran and Oman report progress. Rubio remains hopeful, and Bessent believes a breakthrough could arrive quickly.

But the administration’s private anxiety tells a different story.

After months of conflict, the United States is still trying to secure safe passage through the strait.

It is still trying to bring Iran to direct negotiations.

It is still debating the core terms of an understanding that was supposed to prevent the crisis from reaching this point.

Trump says the finish line may be hours away.

His own officials fear they have returned to the starting line.