American drivers already paying more than $4 a gallon may soon face an even more painful shock at the pump.

Energy analysts are warning that oil prices could climb sharply as the war between the United States and Iran drags on, global reserves shrink and critical shipping routes remain under threat.

Crude oil has recently moved above $100 a barrel amid intensified fighting and the collapse of diplomatic efforts to extend an April ceasefire, according to reporting cited by The Washington Post.

The conflict has spread beyond Iran’s borders.

Tehran has reportedly attacked American military sites and energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates.

Iran-aligned Houthi militants have also disrupted Saudi-bound shipping in the Red Sea, placing additional pressure on global oil and gas supplies.

Together, those developments are threatening the flow of energy from one of the world’s most important producing regions.

For months, markets appeared to assume that the war would end quickly.

They may have been betting that political pressure, rising costs or falling public support would eventually force President Donald Trump to pull back.

That calculation has not worked.

“Everyone had been making this bet that Trump would chicken out when things got bad, pull out and the war would end,” said Shon Hiatt, an energy scholar at the University of Southern California’s Marshall School of Business.

“But that hasn’t happened. It is not clear when this will end.”

Hiatt’s statement was political and economic analysis, not proof of Trump’s intentions.

The president may believe continuing military operations is necessary to achieve strategic objectives.

But from the market’s perspective, uncertainty itself is expensive.

Oil traders price risk into every barrel.

When refineries, pipelines, ports or tankers could be attacked, insurers raise rates.

Shipping companies change routes.

Buyers compete for supplies from safer producers.

Even if the physical flow of oil has not stopped completely, fear of future disruption can push prices higher immediately.

Bob McNally, founder of Rapidan Energy Group and a former energy adviser in the George W. Bush administration, described the situation as one of the largest examples of energy-market mispricing in modern history.

His argument is that investors underestimated the war’s duration and severity.

Markets expected a limited conflict.

Instead, they are confronting a prolonged regional confrontation with attacks on military facilities, energy infrastructure and international shipping.

Oil prices are now catching up to that reality.

The greatest danger may be that the buffers which protected consumers during the early months of the war are disappearing.

When fighting began in late February, global oil inventories were relatively strong.

China helped ease pressure by drawing down its reserves.

The United States and allied governments also released hundreds of millions of barrels of crude from emergency stockpiles.

Those releases added supply and prevented the initial military shock from translating immediately into an even larger price spike.

But emergency reserves are not unlimited.

Once oil is released, it eventually must be replaced.

Stockpiles that were available at the beginning of the conflict are now significantly smaller, according to the supplied report.

Governments may be more reluctant to release additional barrels because doing so would leave them with less protection against another crisis.

China is also rebuilding its reserves while its domestic demand rebounds.

That means one of the countries that previously helped absorb the shock may soon become another major buyer competing for limited supply.

The timing could hardly be worse.

Summer driving season is increasing fuel consumption across the United States and Europe.

More families are traveling.

Airlines need additional jet fuel.

Trucking and shipping demand remain high.

At the same time, countries are attempting to restore depleted emergency inventories.

Demand is rising just as the supply system becomes more fragile.

Ben Cahill, an energy expert at the University of Texas at Austin, said the shock absorbers that carried the market through the war’s opening months have worn thin.

That makes each new disruption more dangerous.

An attack that might once have caused a brief price increase can now trigger a larger reaction because fewer spare barrels are available to replace lost supply.

The pressure is not limited to gasoline.

Diesel prices have reportedly climbed to approximately $5.20 a gallon nationally.

That increase has been worsened by Ukrainian drone attacks that damaged Russian refineries important to the global diesel market.

Russia remains a major supplier of refined petroleum products.

When refinery output is disrupted, global buyers must compete for diesel from other sources.

American farmers are among those feeling the consequences.

A congressional report cited in the article found that farmers spent approximately $1.4 billion more on diesel during the latest planting season than they did the previous year.

That increase does not remain confined to farms.

Higher diesel costs raise the price of planting, harvesting and transporting food.

Trucks use diesel to move goods from farms to warehouses and grocery stores.

Construction equipment, freight trains and industrial machinery also depend on it.

When diesel becomes more expensive, costs spread through the entire economy.

Consumers may eventually pay more for food, deliveries, building materials and manufactured products.

Gasoline prices also have a powerful psychological effect.

They are displayed on enormous signs that drivers see every day.

Unlike many household expenses, fuel prices are highly visible and change frequently.

A sudden increase can rapidly alter public attitudes about the economy and the government.

That presents a major political danger for Trump.

His administration may argue that the war is necessary for national security and that temporary price increases are the cost of confronting Iran.

But voters who are already struggling with food, housing and insurance costs may have little patience for another major expense.

A president can explain global supply chains, war-risk premiums and refinery outages.

Drivers still see the number on the pump.

The situation could become dramatically worse if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed or severely restricted.

The narrow waterway connects the Persian Gulf to global markets and carries a substantial share of the world’s petroleum exports.

Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates rely heavily on routes through or near the strait.

Iran has repeatedly threatened shipping there during periods of confrontation.

Even a partial disruption could cause prices to surge.

Capital Economics has reportedly warned that a prolonged closure could push oil prices more than 20 percent higher over the coming months.

That is a forecast, not a certainty.

Prices would depend on how long the disruption lasted, whether alternative routes remained open and how quickly other producers could increase output.

But a rise of that magnitude would almost certainly translate into higher gasoline, diesel and aviation-fuel costs.

The firm summarized the global problem bluntly:

“China can’t bail out the global oil market forever.”

China helped stabilize prices earlier by using its reserves and reducing its need to purchase oil on the open market.

But now those reserves must be replenished.

As Chinese refineries increase buying, they could intensify competition for available barrels.

The United States also faces limits.

Domestic oil production can increase, but not instantly.

Companies need time, equipment, workers and financing to drill new wells.

Refineries cannot always process every type of crude.

Pipelines and export terminals have fixed capacities.

Even when America produces large amounts of oil, domestic gasoline prices remain connected to global markets.

Oil companies sell into an international system.

A supply disruption in the Middle East can therefore raise prices in Texas, Ohio or California even when American wells continue pumping.

Trump’s supporters may accuse analysts of exaggerating the danger to undermine the president.

Energy forecasts are uncertain, and oil prices can fall quickly if negotiations resume, fighting slows or major producers increase supply.

Saudi Arabia and other OPEC members may possess spare capacity they can bring to market.

Economic weakness could also reduce demand.

A ceasefire would immediately remove some of the risk premium now built into prices.

But the central warning is not based on one prediction.

It is based on the loss of flexibility.

Inventories are lower.

Emergency reserves have already been used.

Summer demand is rising.

Chinese buying is returning.

Russian refinery output has been disrupted.

Middle Eastern energy infrastructure is under attack.

Shipping lanes remain endangered.

Each problem would be manageable in isolation.

Together, they create conditions for a severe price shock.

The war’s political timetable may also conflict with the market’s economic timetable.

Trump may believe the United States can maintain military pressure until Iran accepts his terms.

Oil traders, however, do not wait for a final victory or defeat.

They react every day to the possibility of another attack.

Every additional week of fighting consumes fuel, depletes inventories and increases the chance of escalation.

A long war may eventually produce the same economic pressure that experts expected would force Trump to end it.

But by then, consumers could already be paying substantially more.

Hiatt’s remark that everyone expected Trump to “chicken out” captures the market’s failed assumption.

Investors did not necessarily believe the conflict was safe.

They believed it would be politically unsustainable.

They expected Trump to step away before the costs became severe.

Instead, the fighting has continued.

Now the market must price a war with no clear end.

That is why oil has moved above $100.

It is why gasoline prices are already above $4 in many places.

And it is why analysts say the next increase could be much worse.

The early months of the conflict were softened by stored oil and emergency intervention.

Those protections created an illusion that the economic damage could remain contained.

That illusion is fading.

The world has already used much of its cushion.

The next disruption may fall directly on consumers.

For American drivers, the message is grim:

The pump is already painful.

The real shock may still be ahead.