A dramatic warning from a prominent geopolitical analyst is raising fresh concerns about the future of the global economy as tensions between Israel and Iran continue to escalate.

According to analyst Trita Parsi, President Donald Trump now finds himself at a pivotal crossroads — one that could determine whether the Middle East moves toward de-escalation or tumbles into a conflict with consequences severe enough to shake the entire world economy.

At the center of the concern is oil.

And the numbers being discussed are enough to send shockwaves through financial markets.

Parsi warned that if the current crisis expands and the United States becomes more deeply involved, oil prices could surge “well above $200 per barrel,” a level that would represent one of the most dramatic energy shocks in modern history.

The warning comes after another weekend of military exchanges between Israel and Iran, a conflict that has increasingly placed Washington in a difficult position.

On Monday, Trump publicly called on both countries to stop fighting, signaling his desire to prevent further escalation.

But events on the ground appear to be moving faster than diplomatic efforts.

Missiles continue to fly.

Military threats continue to escalate.

And both governments have repeatedly shown a willingness to ignore international calls for restraint.

According to Parsi, the most likely short-term scenario is that the exchanges continue.

The larger question, however, is whether the United States eventually becomes directly involved.

“The key question,” Parsi wrote, “is whether Trump will eventually enter the conflict — or be pulled into it.”

That distinction may ultimately prove crucial.

If Washington remains outside the conflict, the situation could remain contained, at least temporarily.

But if American forces become involved, analysts fear Iran may activate options it has largely avoided until now.

Among those options is the disruption of major shipping routes in the Red Sea, one of the world’s most important trade corridors.

Another possibility involves attacks on critical oil infrastructure throughout the Gulf region.

Such actions could instantly impact global energy supplies.

The consequences would be felt far beyond the Middle East.

Gas stations.

Grocery stores.

Airlines.

Manufacturing plants.

Virtually every sector of the economy would feel the pressure.

The warning arrives as energy prices have already begun climbing sharply.

Oil prices, which had previously traded around $72 per barrel before recent military developments, have surged significantly higher.

The increase is already filtering through to consumers.

Average gasoline prices have risen substantially in recent weeks, placing additional pressure on households already struggling with inflation and high living costs.

For many Americans, rising fuel costs quickly translate into rising costs everywhere else.

Transportation becomes more expensive.

Food prices increase.

Business operating expenses climb.

Consumer spending weakens.

Economic growth slows.

Historically, major oil shocks have often preceded periods of economic turbulence and political instability.

That reality is one reason why developments in the Middle East continue to command intense attention from governments, financial institutions, and investors around the world.

The political implications are equally significant.

Trump returned to office promising economic strength and lower costs for American families.

A prolonged energy crisis would threaten those goals and potentially create new political challenges heading into future election cycles.

Supporters argue that the administration is actively working to prevent a broader regional war.

Critics contend that recent policies have contributed to growing instability.

Meanwhile, global markets remain on edge.

Every new military strike.

Every diplomatic setback.

Every public statement from world leaders now carries enormous weight.

Investors, traders, and governments are all searching for clues about what comes next.

For now, the world is watching a dangerous standoff unfold.

The next few days and weeks may determine whether tensions gradually cool or spiral into something much larger.

If diplomacy succeeds, the global economy may avoid disaster.

If it fails, the consequences could extend far beyond the battlefield.

And as warnings of $200 oil grow louder, the stakes for the United States — and the world — continue to rise.