As the government shutdown stretches into its third week, political analysts expected President Donald Trump’s approval to tumble — yet data tells a different story. According to CNN’s chief data analyst Harry Enten, the ongoing standoff isn’t hurting Trump politically. In fact, it may even be giving him a slight edge.

Enten revealed on CNN that the president’s net approval rating has actually risen by one point since the shutdown began, defying the usual political gravity that punishes sitting presidents during national crises. It’s a striking reversal from the 35-day shutdown of 2018–2019, when Trump’s popularity sank three points by the twentieth day.

A Surprising Turn in Public Opinion

“The bottom line is this: the first shutdown during Trump’s first term was hurting Donald Trump,” Enten said. “This one is not hurting him at all. There’s no real reason Donald Trump might say, at least when it comes to popular support, ‘I want to get out of this shutdown.’”

The finding comes amid a deep partisan deadlock over healthcare funding. Democrats are demanding an extension of Affordable Care Act subsidies that expire at year’s end, while Republicans — including Trump’s allies in Congress — refuse to move forward without sweeping spending cuts. The impasse has shuttered parts of the federal government and left thousands of federal workers without pay.

Yet despite the economic ripple effects, Trump’s base appears unfazed. An average of recent polls compiled by statistician Nate Silver shows Trump’s approval at 44.2 percent, with 52.1 percent disapproving — giving him a net rating of –7.8. That number is still negative, but it represents a small improvement over last week, a sign that the political damage has stalled.

Shifting the Blame

In previous shutdowns, presidents have struggled to escape public blame. But this time, the numbers suggest Trump is facing less of it.

According to data from the AP–NORC Center, only 48 percent of Americans now blame Trump for the shutdown, a sharp decline from the 61 percent who held him responsible during his first-term standoff. Meanwhile, 54 percent say Democrats in Congress also bear significant responsibility.

“It’s a different world,” Enten explained. “Again, it’s no real wonder that Donald Trump, at this point, looking at the shutdown says, ‘You know what, it’s not actually harming me politically,’ in large part, because he’s getting less of the blame.”

The AP–NORC poll, conducted from October 9 to 13, paints a picture of divided public frustration. Fifty-eight percent of respondents said Trump and Republican lawmakers hold “a great deal” or “quite a bit” of responsibility for the shutdown — but nearly the same share pointed fingers at Democrats.

The Political Stakes

Behind the polling numbers lies a high-stakes political calculation. For Trump, the shutdown has become both a test of endurance and a campaign weapon. As he leans into a populist message of government reform and fiscal control, the minimal drop in his approval gives him little incentive to compromise.

Democrats, meanwhile, are betting that frustration will grow over time. With federal agencies stalled and social services disrupted, the long-term effects could still turn public sentiment against the president. But for now, the data suggests Trump is holding steady, buoyed by a loyal voter base that sees the standoff as proof of his willingness to fight Washington.

A Polarized Nation, Unmoved

The latest polls reveal what many observers already suspect — that American opinion is largely baked in. Supporters remain loyal, critics remain skeptical, and few minds are changing in the middle.

In 2019, Trump’s first shutdown became a political liability, cutting into his support and forcing a retreat. Six years later, the dynamic has shifted. With the electorate even more polarized and partisan media reinforcing divisions, Trump appears insulated from the kind of backlash that once seemed inevitable.

For all the economic pain and political gridlock, the numbers suggest a startling reality: the shutdown may be hurting the country — but not the man in charge of it.