DES MOINES, Iowa — Republican Sen. Joni Ernst announced Tuesday that she will not seek reelection in 2026, ending months of speculation and immediately upending the political landscape in one of the nation’s most closely watched Senate battlegrounds.
In a video message posted to social media, Ernst said the decision was “no easy one,” citing family and personal considerations after more than a decade in Washington.
“I never imagined this farm girl would have the opportunity to serve as a lieutenant colonel and then a United States senator,” Ernst said. “But it is time for me to step aside, to spend more time with my aging family and growing family.”
Her retirement leaves Republicans defending yet another open seat at a moment when their Senate majority is already under strain. Ernst joins Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina, who also declined to run again after clashing with President Donald Trump, in stepping away.
Ernst, first elected in 2014, made history as Iowa’s first female member of Congress. A combat veteran of the Iraq War and retired Army National Guard lieutenant colonel, she quickly rose within GOP ranks, serving in party leadership and even being considered as a potential vice presidential pick for Trump in 2016. Her 2014 campaign ad — in which she promised to make Washington “squeal” while referencing her experience castrating hogs — became one of the cycle’s most memorable political moments.
But the past year has tested Ernst’s political standing. She drew fire from Trump loyalists after expressing hesitation about one of his Cabinet nominees, while Democrats seized on her town hall remark about Medicaid cuts to frame her as out of touch.
Her exit now throws Iowa’s 2026 race wide open.
Rep. Ashley Hinson, a three-term Republican from Cedar Rapids and a staunch Trump ally, is widely expected to enter the race. In a statement posted shortly after Ernst’s announcement, Hinson thanked the senator for her service and signaled her intentions:
“Trump needs a fighter in the Senate who will always have his back. I’ve stood shoulder to shoulder with the President to pass this America First agenda in the House, and I would be his strongest ally in the Senate,” Hinson wrote, promising a formal announcement soon.
Two Republicans — former state Sen. Jim Carlin and Iraq veteran Joshua Smith — had already filed to challenge Ernst before her retirement, though Hinson’s entry would likely dominate the primary field.
Democrats, meanwhile, see Ernst’s departure as a rare opportunity in a state that has leaned Republican in recent cycles. Several candidates are already positioning themselves: state Sen. Zach Wahls, state Rep. Josh Turek, Des Moines School Board chair Jackie Norris, and Nathan Sage, a former chamber of commerce president.
The contest could reshape not only the Senate map but also Iowa’s House delegation. If Hinson vacates her seat to run statewide, Republicans would have to defend one of the state’s most competitive districts at a time when Democrats are aggressively targeting suburban and swing voters.
National Republicans moved quickly to praise Ernst’s service and minimize concerns about losing her seat. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina, who chairs the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Ernst had spent her career “helping Iowa families and making Washington squeal.”
“Traveling across the Hawkeye State with Joni, I know she loves Iowa, and Iowa loves her,” Scott said.
Still, Ernst’s retirement underscores the volatility facing Republicans as they head into 2026. With Trump back in the White House, fractures within the GOP and mounting Democratic challenges could turn Iowa into one of the defining Senate battles of the cycle.
