In a city rocked by mass ICE raids, late-night deportations, and an escalating migrant crisis, something unexpected is happening: a 33-year-old democratic socialist, Zohran Mamdani, is surging in the polls — and his rise is threatening to unseat former Governor Andrew Cuomo in the Democratic primary for mayor of New York City.

While Cuomo once seemed untouchable — leading by 24 points in May — a new Marist poll shows that gap has been cut to just 10 points. And among Latino voters, who make up nearly 30% of the city’s electorate, Mamdani now leads by five.

The catalyst? Immigration.

Mamdani has made confronting Trump’s revived deportation regime the centerpiece of his campaign — and for many Latino New Yorkers, it’s personal. In an interview with The Bulwark, Mamdani didn’t mince words: “A disgraced former governor who describes undocumented immigrants as ‘illegals’ is not what we need as a city under attack by an authoritarian.”

That former governor is Cuomo, who despite a once-strong base in working-class communities, has seen his support among Latino voters shrink as Mamdani frames the race as a moral fight for New York’s soul.

“We need someone who will stand up to Trump’s fascist ICE agents — not someone who looks and sounds just like him,” Mamdani said.

For Mamdani, a Ugandan-born immigrant who came to Queens at age 7, the issue of deportation is deeply personal. He received his citizenship and got married at City Hall. And just a few blocks away, at the Federal Plaza immigration court, he’s watched families get ripped apart. “What Brad Lander did was courageous,” Mamdani said, referring to the NYC comptroller’s arrest this week after he locked arms with an immigrant facing removal.

Indeed, Mamdani joined Lander and others outside the courthouse the day after the arrest, decrying ICE’s presence in city courts as “state-sponsored terror.” He added, “If they’ll arrest the comptroller of New York City, what will they do to someone without a title?”

Immigration wasn’t supposed to be the defining issue of this mayoral race. Candidates were initially focused on housing, transportation, and antisemitism. But with ICE agents ramping up raids and Republican governors busing migrants to NYC, the issue has exploded into the spotlight.

And Mamdani has seized that moment — pushing for legal aid funding, sanctuary policies, and public shaming of ICE tactics. His proposals to freeze rent, provide universal child care, and make buses free were once derided as “unrealistic.” But they’ve found resonance with immigrant voters who live in overcrowded housing and rely on public services to survive.

A 2023 report from the mayor’s own immigrant affairs office found that over one million New Yorkers live in mixed-status households, and 80% of undocumented families with children have kids who are U.S. citizens.

That’s the audience Mamdani is speaking to. And it’s why his rhetoric — often branded as “radical” by Cuomo and The New York Times — is connecting.

But not everyone is on board. Cuomo’s campaign has hit back hard, running attack ads accusing Mamdani of enabling antisemitism and being “out of touch” with the city’s challenges. Governor Kathy Hochul has warned that Mamdani’s tax proposals would drive the rich to Florida. And the New York Times editorial board slammed his platform as “uniquely unsuited to the realities of governance.”

Still, Mamdani is undeterred. “Social justice without economic justice is like clapping with one hand,” he told The Bulwark. “You can’t fight Trumpism with moderation. You need moral clarity.”

Meanwhile, incumbent Mayor Eric Adams, who skipped the Democratic primary and is running as an independent amid a federal corruption indictment, has lurked in the background — even reportedly seeking a pardon from Trump after the Justice Department mysteriously dropped his case.

Mamdani says Adams’s scandal-plagued tenure has only confirmed voters’ worst fears. “Even I was surprised by the scale of corruption,” he said. “His administration betrayed a coalition of Black and brown New Yorkers.”

Now, Mamdani is hoping to build a new one — rooted in resistance, solidarity, and what he calls “radical compassion.”

With the primary just days away and ICE raids continuing to shake immigrant communities, that message could prove more powerful than anyone expected.